The new year is officially here, and we’re all aching for some good news to cure our 2020 hangover. In the Portland Metro Area, our test positivity rate has been about 4.5 percent (down from 6.7 percent in November) for the two-week period beginning December 20. The most recent preliminary data shows only a slight uptick in these trends, but nothing compared to the November surge. So by limiting gatherings we’ve given ourselves a Christmas present that really counts! Stay tuned for updates as more numbers come in.
To be clear, we are still near the peak of infection, not a valley. The case rate is higher than any period from February to October of 2020. The State of Oregon as a whole is still observing over 7 percent test positivity rate. Contact tracing is still overwhelmed. Hospitals are near capacity. Metro Area counties are among 23 of the 36 counties in Governor Brown’s “Extreme Risk” category. But if we stay this course, we may find our way down to the “High Risk” category, where our gyms can re-open to let us get to work on those New Year’s Resolutions, among other things. All the while, more people are vaccinated every day.
Vaccination
After a painfully slow first month of rollout, Oregon is ramping up vaccine injection. Governor Brown has set a goal to reach 12,000 daily injections by the end of this week and appears to be on track for meeting it. If the state keeps receiving enough vaccines, they should make sufficient progress with Phase 1A (healthcare workers, nursing homes) over the next month or so to open up to Phase 1B (educators, people >age 75, essential frontline workers).
President-elect Biden has pledged to release vaccines to states as soon as they become available, which will eliminate some unnecessary friction from the system. Optimistically, barring some manufacturing problem or other disruption, the continued improvement in distribution logistics may enable Phase 1C (age 65-74, people with chronic health conditions, other essential workers) to start getting vaccinated this Spring. Of course, the only certainty is that the plan will continue to evolve as projections meet reality. You can visit https://covidvaccine.oregon.
Can I get vaccinated at Baskin Clinic?
Baskin Clinic is not currently slated to become a vaccine distribution site for Phase 1A. All major hospital systems in the Portland area have the vaccine, and most all are now open to providing injections to anyone who qualifies. If you’re in Phase 1A, our recommendation would be to call your nearest hospital to schedule an appointment, and go from there. If you’re having trouble, let us know. We’ll be happy to help.
Herd immunity and the path toward ending the pandemic
Herd immunity is about breaking pathways of transmission. The more infectious a virus is, the more possible paths of transmission the virus has, and therefore the higher the percentage of the population needs to be protected in order to block it off. Measles is the most infectious disease that infects humans, and herd immunity requires about 90 percent of people to be vaccinated in order to keep it in check.
SARS-CoV-2 is less infectious than measles. And for reasons not completely understood, there is great variability in the infectiousness of different people who get the virus. We’ve seen that some people spread SARS-CoV-2 to many people (super-spreader events) and some spread to no one at all (like a person tests positive, but not even their spouse never gets infected). This variability is why some scientists have said that herd immunity could come when as few as 40 percent of the population are protected and Dr. Fauci and others put the number closer to 80 percent. The spread of a new, more infectious variant may drive the final answer even higher.
Ultimately, for the pandemic to end, we need as many people as possible to be vaccinated. It’s best to think of herd immunity as an emergent property of a population as it gains protection. The virus will be increasingly cut off from easy roads to new hosts, and this will be reflected in the data before we get to 80 percent vaccination.
As you know, we can’t leave you without a little humor. We in the Baskin Clinic family aren’t the biggest sports fans you’ll meet, but with the NFL playoffs underway, we thought we’d share a bit of good spirited competition that had our tails wagging:
Take care,
Baskin Clinic