A month ago, the Portland area was approaching the criteria for reopening some in-person K-3 schools. This week, Multnomah County has been placed back on the state health department’s watch list for the first time since August. The state of Oregon had a 14% increase in cases since last week, setting new record highs for daily and weekly cases. Testing figures are comparable with the July rates, so we can’t blame the increase on more testing. Open hospital beds in our area are still plentiful for now. But the trend is troubling, and could threaten hospital capacity if not contained.
What’s going on?
Today, state health officials believe that large workplace outbreaks account for a smaller proportion of the spread than they did over the summer. So what changed? Masks, mainly.
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In Oregon, basically all workplaces and other indoor public settings are included in the mask mandate.
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A poll conducted by the CDC revealed that mask use has been increasing as the pandemic wears on. From 78 percent adherence in April up to nearly 90 percent adherence by the end of June.
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The poll also revealed that adults over 60 are significantly more likely than those under 30 to practice protective behaviors like wearing masks, maintaining >6ft distance, and washing hands. This fits exactly with what we’re seeing in the case counts and mortality data.
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Ages 20 to 49 account for 56% of new cases, despite accounting for 39% of the total population.
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Ages 70 and older accounted for 75% of deaths.
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Practicing these behaviors while restricting the size of gatherings has cut down the frequency of super-spreader events. However, the virus is already so widely distributed that it continues to spread in small clusters, and right now, there are more of these small clusters throughout the state.
Evidence points to social and family gatherings as a primary driver of the recent surge in infections. Makes sense, right? When are we likely to loosen our standards?
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Shaking hands with strangers may be passé, but sharing a hug with a close friend after months of quarantine feels necessary for emotional wellbeing.
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Getting on a plane seems iffy, but carpooling to a trailhead with a friend seems environmentally friendly.
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Eating in a crowded restaurant raises the alarm, but moving indoors when it unexpectedly rains on a backyard gathering seems unavoidable at the time.
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Playing team sports is a risk, but celebrating a World Series victory is a special opportunity.
How do we get back on track?
It is totally normal to make exceptions for loved ones. But it’s not completely benign. And safety doesn’t have to be all or nothing. We’ve already read too many stories of family tragedy like this one. If we don’t want Portland’s hospitals to look like those in Milwaukie or El Paso, we need to do the work to incorporate safe habits into our social and family gatherings now. For ideas check out these resources:
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If you missed our video on safer socializing indoors, we encourage you to watch Dr. Heather and Dr. Kate discuss the issue.
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We also recommend this article. It has some really impressive graphics that illustrate the importance of duration, proximity, mask adherence, and ventilation in aerosol transmission.
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You can also play around with this indoor aerosol risk calculator from MIT, even customizing variables like the MERV rating on your HVAC filter.
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For gauging risk with a variety of activities, here’s another useful tool.
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Looking for a fun and safe way to spend Halloween this year? How about a Zoom pumpkin carving party?
Stay well,
Baskin Clinic