We hope you all had a lovely and safe Thanksgiving! Now, let’s hunker down. Thanks to early and collective action, we Oregonians have largely avoided the worst that COVID can inflict upon a community.
Only four states (VT, ME, HI, and NH) have had fewer infections per capita than Oregon. But exponential growth is deceptive by nature. We wrote about viral reproductive rate back in July, and it’s worth revisiting. Oregon has an effective reproductive rate of about 1.47, which ranks 1st in the country. This is how we got from daily case numbers around 400 on November 1 to 1200 on December 1. So despite having fewer infections per capita than most states, our current growth rate could easily squander our advantage.
The country now appears to be just weeks away from distribution of the first courses of COVID-19 vaccine. Let’s stay focused and vigilant to protect ourselves, neighbors, and frontline workers.
New COVID restrictions ordered by Governor Brown
Starting today, we have a fresh set of emergency orders from the Governor’s office. The metro area counties fall into the Extreme risk level.
Why are we at Extreme risk? In the metro area, COVID hospitalizations have tripled over the last month. Testing positivity rate is about 7 percent, the highest it has ever been. And the wide distribution of cases in the community is well beyond the capacity of our public health officials to effectively do contact tracing and isolation of outbreaks.
It takes about 5-7 days following an exposure to develop symptoms and another few days after that to return test results. So, the numbers we mentioned don’t yet include those who were exposed for Thanksgiving. Our actions over the next few weeks will determine whether our hospitals overflow.
Act to reduce close contacts
If you’ve formed a “bubble” or “quaran-team” to help survive this year, now is a good time to review the charter. Being careful to spend time with just a couple other households, who are spending time with a couple other households, who are spending time with a couple other households, means that the bubble is really several households large. Dial this back to just one other household per two week period, at least until the county’s risk level drops out of the “Extreme risk” category.
CDC issues new guidance on quarantine
CDC issues new guidance on quarantineHopefully, hunkering down will keep us all from being exposed to someone with COVID-19. But if you are exposed, you may be wondering what to do. The answer is quarantine.
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Pop that bubble.
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Work from home.
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Self-monitor for symptoms.
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Have food delivered.
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If leaving home is unavoidable, go out with clean hands, a mask on, and be as efficient as possible.
Until now, CDC guidance has been to do all of these things for 14 days. The CDC issued new guidance yesterday, subject to the authority of local jurisdictions, that offers options to shorten the home isolation part of this process to 10 or even 7 days.
Vaccine progress!
Two vaccines, one from Pfizer and one from Moderna, have published findings that indicate about 95 percent efficacy. The New York Times has excellent reporting on these trials, which you can read here.
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Pfizer received emergency approval from the British CDC this week.
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Emergency use authorization from the FDA for vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna may come in the next few weeks.
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The US government has preemptively ordered hundreds of millions of doses from both companies, many of which will be distributed soon after FDA approval.
A third vaccine candidate from AstraZeneca and Oxford is recruiting at OHSU for its Phase 3 trial. Initial data suggests it carries 62 percent efficacy, good but not great. If you would like to volunteer, click here.
Because the vaccine is in short supply and high demand, it will be rationed. In Oregon, health care workers, residents in long-term care facilities, BIPOC communities, and front line workers will be among the first in line. For those with an appetite for reading government documents, a draft plan is available here. It is very unlikely that Baskin Clinic will be part of the distribution. We promise to provide updates if the situation changes.
As you know, we always want to leave you with a little something fun. Just a few days into the first lockdown, hundreds of thousands (maybe even millions) of people collectively groaned as celebrities released a surprisingly tone-deaf cover of John Lennon’s “Imagine” (not linked because it’s still cringe-worthy). Hopefully, you missed it. Last week, we stumbled onto this gem, which we WILL enthusiastically share — because this a cappella ensemble is genuinely fun and adorable! Hopefully it brightens your day as well:
Take care,
Baskin Clinic