It’s always nice to start off with a bit of good news! “The curve” appears to have plateaued in recent weeks. Just as in previous updates, we are looking beyond the number of new infections because looking only at the shape of the curve would be misleading.
A nationwide testing supply shortage has led to a 32% decrease in weekly COVID tests for the Portland Metro area. At the same time, the percentage of positive tests in our region has dropped — also good news! — from 5% to about 3%. All this suggests that the number of cases is not accelerating.
That said, not all of the trends point to good news: The proportion of cases that cannot be traced to a known source has been steadily increasing, and is now up to 45%. So while the virus isn’t spreading faster, it is spreading more widely in the community. This seems consistent with how people are moving around. According to Facebook’s mobility data, Multnomah County residents are about 11% less mobile than their pre-pandemic baseline, but about 20% MORE mobile compared to May 1st. Wearing masks and physical distancing is working to prevent major outbreaks and superspreading events, but people continue moving around (at workplaces, socially, and otherwise) in ways that allow the virus to jump between households.
In order to keep up, the statewide masking requirements have been extended to more and more places; as of this week, they now include private and public offices. This strategy seems to be working to contain the virus in the current environment. But there is much to be resolved before the next phase of reopening can be considered, leaving aside the complicated question of in-person schools.
COVID-19 Vaccines and Treatments Update
Some of what needs to be resolved is knowing when we will have safe and viable vaccines and treatments for COVID-19. The New York Times has a helpful resource for tracking the progress of the many prospects. If you are curious, you can check out their vaccine tracker and treatment tracker.
The most optimistic projections suggest a viable COVID vaccine may be ready around the end of the year.
Flu Season and Vaccines
We believe it is very important to get the flu vaccine for a lot of reasons, but one of them is that you can get both COVID-19 and the flu at the same time. As in previous years, the CDC is recommending that everyone over 6 months of age get a shot. Manufacturers are preparing nearly 200 million doses of vaccine this year, about 25 million more than usual in anticipation of increased demand.
Apparently the word is out, since we have already been getting questions from patients about when the flu vaccine will be ready and whether they should get it early. Unfortunately, the body’s immune response to flu vaccine wanes over a period of months, so if you get it too early, your immunity will disappear before the end of the flu season. When is the best time? Around the end of September or early October is an ideal time to be immunized for flu. And don’t worry: Baskin Clinic will be sure to let you know when flu shots arrive!
On a Lighter Note
As you know, we’d always like to end with something fun. It’s 75 or so days until the election. Though we want to keep these messages largely apolitical, we thought this Australian politician’s ad was too creative not to share. When election season stresses you out, just imagine the candidates doing their own version of this ad:
And if you haven’t yet done so, please take 3 minutes to share your feedback about the Baskin Clinic pandemic response.
Stay well,
Baskin Clinic